THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Aug 22, 2026, 05:50 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.74%	+0.04	100%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.71%	+0.01	65%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.03%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.71%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

The 10Y yield is significantly high, indicating potential inflationary pressures.
The 2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a mixed outlook on short-term economic growth.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, reflecting investor confidence in long-term growth despite rising yields.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term interest rates.

Risk Watch	High 10Y yields may signal increased borrowing costs and potential economic slowdown.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0014	-0.56%	0.0011	0.0016	78%	Late-cycle Expansion
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.6025	1.95%	0.5156	0.7712	45%	Mid-cycle Expansion
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.908	—	0.903	1.257	2%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities.
Equity yield relative to bond yield is at a low percentile, indicating potential overvaluation in equities.

Risk Watch	The low equity yield relative to bond yield may signal a correction in equity markets.
Opportunity Watch	The strong copper/gold ratio could indicate potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	3%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.81%	73%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.70 pp	58%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-07
CSI 300 spot	4,618.90	+0.57%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic deterioration.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued assets.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	106	+0.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$13,642,516	2026-09-16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$7,721,094	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$9,872,380	2026-09-16

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 106.
Equal probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026.
Market sentiment reflects a balanced outlook on interest rate adjustments.
Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion phase.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	The stable Pizza Index may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from moderate economic growth.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Aug 22, 2026, 05:50 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.74%	+0.04	100%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.71%	+0.01	65%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.03%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.71%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

The 10Y yield is significantly high, indicating potential inflationary pressures.
The 2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a mixed outlook on short-term economic growth.
The 10Y-2Y spread is positive, reflecting investor confidence in long-term growth despite rising yields.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term interest rates.

Risk Watch	High 10Y yields may signal increased borrowing costs and potential economic slowdown.
Opportunity Watch	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0014	-0.56%	0.0011	0.0016	78%	Late-cycle Expansion
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.6025	1.95%	0.5156	0.7712	45%	Mid-cycle Expansion
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.908	—	0.903	1.257	2%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests moderate investor confidence in equities.
Equity yield relative to bond yield is at a low percentile, indicating potential overvaluation in equities.

Risk Watch	The low equity yield relative to bond yield may signal a correction in equity markets.
Opportunity Watch	The strong copper/gold ratio could indicate potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	-3.33%	3%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.81%	73%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.70 pp	58%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-07
CSI 300 spot	4,618.90	+0.57%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

Risk Watch	Continued negative credit impulse may signal further economic deterioration.
Opportunity Watch	High equity risk premium could present potential value opportunities in undervalued assets.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	106	+0.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$13,642,516	2026-09-16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$7,721,094	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$9,872,380	2026-09-16

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 106.
Equal probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026.
Market sentiment reflects a balanced outlook on interest rate adjustments.
Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion phase.

Risk Watch	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions could lead to market volatility.
Opportunity Watch	The stable Pizza Index may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from moderate economic growth.