THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jun 23, 2026, 07:53 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.51%	+0.06	96%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.68%	+0.02	53%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.83%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.68%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y Yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y Yield is moderate, suggesting a balanced short-term outlook.
The 10Y-2Y Spread is positive, reflecting a potential for continued economic growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y Yield, indicating stable short-term funding conditions.

Risk Watch	High long-term yields may signal tightening financial conditions that could impact growth.
Opportunity Watch	The positive yield spread may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from a prolonged expansion.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	-0.36%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5632	0.39%	0.5156	0.7712	28%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.966	—	0.948	1.251	7%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Business-Cycle Regime: Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting optimism.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a lower preference for gold, indicating confidence in equities.
Equity yield relative to bond yield is at a low percentile, suggesting potential overvaluation in equities.

Risk Watch	The low equity yield relative to bond yield may signal a correction risk in the equity market.
Opportunity Watch	The strong copper/gold ratio may present opportunities in industrial metals.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	6.56%	70%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.24%	2%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.10 pp	64%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-05
CSI 300 spot	5,059.66	+2.39%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China's Macro Snapshot Analysis

Credit Impulse indicates a positive momentum in credit growth, suggesting potential recovery.
Equity Risk Premium is at a low percentile, indicating high market valuations relative to risk.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, suggesting a contraction in money supply growth relative to broader measures.

Risk Watch	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal overvaluation risks in the equity market.
Opportunity Watch	The positive Credit Impulse could indicate emerging investment opportunities as recovery takes hold.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	124	+2.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
下一次 FOMC 会议美联储是否按兵不动？	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
到 2026 年底，美联储累计降息是否达到 75bp 以上？	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
美国二季度实际 GDP 年化是否高于 +1.5%？	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates robust economic activity at 124.
Probabilities suggest a 68% chance the Fed will maintain rates at the next meeting.
There is a 31% probability of cumulative rate cuts exceeding 75bps by the end of 2026.
57% probability that Q2 GDP growth will exceed 1.5%.

Risk Watch	The potential for a slowdown in GDP growth could impact market sentiment.
Opportunity Watch	Monitoring Fed policy decisions may reveal shifts in market dynamics.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Jun 23, 2026, 07:53 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.51%	+0.06	96%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	3.68%	+0.02	53%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+0.83%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	3.68%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y Yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
2Y Yield is moderate, suggesting a balanced short-term outlook.
The 10Y-2Y Spread is positive, reflecting a potential for continued economic growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y Yield, indicating stable short-term funding conditions.

Risk Watch	High long-term yields may signal tightening financial conditions that could impact growth.
Opportunity Watch	The positive yield spread may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from a prolonged expansion.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	-0.36%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5632	0.39%	0.5156	0.7712	28%	Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.966	—	0.948	1.251	7%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Business-Cycle Regime: Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting optimism.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a lower preference for gold, indicating confidence in equities.
Equity yield relative to bond yield is at a low percentile, suggesting potential overvaluation in equities.

Risk Watch	The low equity yield relative to bond yield may signal a correction risk in the equity market.
Opportunity Watch	The strong copper/gold ratio may present opportunities in industrial metals.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	6.56%	70%	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.24%	2%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−3.10 pp	64%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-05
CSI 300 spot	5,059.66	+2.39%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China's Macro Snapshot Analysis

Credit Impulse indicates a positive momentum in credit growth, suggesting potential recovery.
Equity Risk Premium is at a low percentile, indicating high market valuations relative to risk.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, suggesting a contraction in money supply growth relative to broader measures.

Risk Watch	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal overvaluation risks in the equity market.
Opportunity Watch	The positive Credit Impulse could indicate emerging investment opportunities as recovery takes hold.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	124	+2.67σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
下一次 FOMC 会议美联储是否按兵不动？	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
到 2026 年底，美联储累计降息是否达到 75bp 以上？	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
美国二季度实际 GDP 年化是否高于 +1.5%？	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates robust economic activity at 124.
Probabilities suggest a 68% chance the Fed will maintain rates at the next meeting.
There is a 31% probability of cumulative rate cuts exceeding 75bps by the end of 2026.
57% probability that Q2 GDP growth will exceed 1.5%.

Risk Watch	The potential for a slowdown in GDP growth could impact market sentiment.
Opportunity Watch	Monitoring Fed policy decisions may reveal shifts in market dynamics.