THE MARKET DESK

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Oct 21, 2026, 08:47 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

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A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	5.12%	−0.02	94%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	4.08%	+0.01	99%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.04%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	4.08%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a positive economic outlook but is narrowing.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market sentiment.

Risk Watch	Rising yields may signal potential market corrections or increased borrowing costs.
Opportunity Watch	Narrowing yield spreads could present opportunities for strategic positioning in fixed income.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.03%	0.0011	0.0016	98%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5409	-0.41%	0.5299	0.7730	8%	Trough / Early Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.856	—	0.819	1.282	7%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests low confidence in equities compared to safe-haven assets.
Equity Yield/Bond Yield shows equities are yielding significantly more than bonds, indicating potential overvaluation.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of Gold/S&P 500 suggests heightened risk in equity markets.
Opportunity Watch	The strong Copper/Gold ratio may signal potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	—	—	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.22%	100%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	56%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-09
CSI 300 spot	4,125.22	−0.65%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in monetary conditions.
Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights into credit market dynamics.

Risk Watch	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions.
Opportunity Watch	The high Equity Risk Premium could present potential value opportunities in equities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	123	+2.56σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$14,904,118	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$11,469,365	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$8,848,220	2026-10-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 123.
Market expectations show equal probability for no change, increase, or decrease in Fed interest rates after October 2026.
The balanced probabilities suggest uncertainty in future monetary policy direction.

Risk Watch	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential volatility in market sentiment.
Opportunity Watch	Stable economic activity may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from consistent consumer spending.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

Macro Research Terminal

Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.

LIVE - DELAYED

Data as of: Oct 21, 2026, 08:47 PM GMT+8

Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Market workbench refreshes every 60 seconds.

§ § §

A - Liquidity & Yield

Rates, spreads, and the shape of the curve.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W %ile	Notes
10-Year Treasury Yield	5.12%	−0.02	94%	^TNX (×10)
2-Year Treasury Yield	4.08%	+0.01	99%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10Y - 2Y Spread	+1.04%	—	—	Curve upward-sloping
SOFR (overnight)	4.08%	—	—	short-end proxy

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y and 2Y yields are elevated, indicating tight monetary conditions.
The 10Y-2Y spread suggests a positive economic outlook but is narrowing.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting short-term borrowing costs.
High percentiles for yields indicate a strong market sentiment.

Risk Watch	Rising yields may signal potential market corrections or increased borrowing costs.
Opportunity Watch	Narrowing yield spreads could present opportunities for strategic positioning in fixed income.

B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass

Relative-value ratios that telegraph the business cycle.
Ratio	Current	Δ	52-W Low	52-W High	52-W %ile	AI Signal
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F	0.0016	0.03%	0.0011	0.0016	98%	Peak / Overheating
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5409	-0.41%	0.5299	0.7730	8%	Trough / Early Recovery
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.856	—	0.819	1.282	7%	Trough / Early Recovery

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to precious metals.
Gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests low confidence in equities compared to safe-haven assets.
Equity Yield/Bond Yield shows equities are yielding significantly more than bonds, indicating potential overvaluation.

Risk Watch	The low percentile of Gold/S&P 500 suggests heightened risk in equity markets.
Opportunity Watch	The strong Copper/Gold ratio may signal potential growth in industrial sectors.

C - China Macro Impulse

Liquidity injection vs. real-economy momentum.
Ratio	Current	52-W %ile	Notes
Credit Impulse (proxy)	—	—	CSI 300 3-month ROC
Equity Risk Premium	+3.22%	100%	proxy: E/P − UST 10Y
M1 - M2 Growth Gap	−4.00 pp	56%	Eastmoney/PBOC monthly, 2026-09
CSI 300 spot	4,125.22	−0.65%	000300.SS

RegimeOpenAI commentary

China Macro Snapshot Analysis

Equity Risk Premium indicates a high level of risk aversion among investors.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap suggests a contraction in monetary conditions.
Credit Impulse data is unavailable, limiting insights into credit market dynamics.

Risk Watch	The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions.
Opportunity Watch	The high Equity Risk Premium could present potential value opportunities in equities.

D - Alternative & Prediction

Off-the-run indicators and real-money prediction-market odds.
Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity)	Current	z-score	Notes
Pizza Index (experimental)	123	+2.56σ	Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity

Top Prediction Markets
Market	YES	Vol.	Close
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$14,904,118	2026-10-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$11,469,365	2026-10-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	50%	$8,848,220	2026-10-29

RegimeOpenAI commentary

Mid-cycle Expansion

Pizza Index indicates stable economic activity at 123.
Market expectations show equal probability for no change, increase, or decrease in Fed interest rates after October 2026.
The balanced probabilities suggest uncertainty in future monetary policy direction.

Risk Watch	The equal probabilities for interest rate changes indicate potential volatility in market sentiment.
Opportunity Watch	Stable economic activity may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from consistent consumer spending.