— ESTABLISHED MCMXXV —
THE MARKET DESK
“All the Figures Fit to Print”
Macro Research Terminal
Cross-asset dashboard for the business cycle: rates, ratios, credit, and alternatives.
LIVE - DELAYED
Data as of: Apr 24, 2026, 06:53 PM GMT+8Quotes via yahoo-finance2 on the server. Refreshed once daily at 16:00 Asia/Shanghai.
§ § §
A - Liquidity & Yield
| Ratio | Current | Δ | 52-W %ile | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 558.40% | +10.83 | 52% | ^TNX (×10) |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 463.70% | +8.02 | 45% | ^IRX (13-W proxy) |
| 10Y - 2Y Spread | +94.70% | — | — | Curve upward-sloping |
| SOFR (overnight) | 463.70% | — | — | short-end proxy |
RegimeOpenAI commentary
Mid-cycle Expansion
- 10Y Yield at 558.4% indicates moderate long-term borrowing costs.
- 2Y Yield at 463.7% suggests short-term rates are lower than long-term rates.
- 10Y-2Y Spread of 94.7% reflects a healthy yield curve.
- SOFR at 463.7% aligns with current short-term interest rate trends.
| Risk Watch | Potential volatility in yields could impact market stability. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The favorable yield curve may present opportunities for strategic positioning. |
B - Cross-Asset Cycle Compass
| Ratio | Current | Δ | 52-W Low | 52-W High | 52-W %ile | AI Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Copper / Gold HG=F / GC=F | 1.4578 | -0.49% | 1.4454 | 1.4587 | 90% | Peak / Overheating |
Gold / S&P 500 GC=F / ^GSPC | 0.6514 | -0.10% | 0.6466 | 0.6722 | 26% | Recovery |
Equity Yield / Bond Yield (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX | 0.009 | — | 0.008 | 0.011 | 48% | Mid-cycle Expansion |
RegimeOpenAI commentary
Mid-cycle Expansion
- Copper/Gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to gold, suggesting positive economic sentiment.
- Gold/S&P 500 ratio reflects a risk-off sentiment, with gold underperforming equities.
- Equity yield relative to bond yield suggests a balanced risk environment with moderate returns expected.
| Risk Watch | Potential volatility may arise if economic indicators shift unexpectedly. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | Monitor industrial metals for signs of sustained demand growth. |
C - China Macro Impulse
| Ratio | Current | 52-W %ile | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Impulse (proxy) | 6.28% | 91% | CSI 300 3-month ROC |
| Equity Risk Premium | −549.96% | 56% | proxy: E/P − UST 10Y |
| M1 - M2 Growth Gap | −1.64 pp | — | awaiting PBOC feed |
| CSI 300 spot | 877.10 | +0.20% | 000300.SS |
RegimeOpenAI commentary
China's Macro Snapshot Analysis
- Credit Impulse indicates strong liquidity support, suggesting potential for economic recovery.
- Equity Risk Premium is negative, reflecting investor caution and potential undervaluation in equities.
- M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, indicating a contraction in money supply growth relative to broader measures.
- Overall, the readings suggest a business-cycle regime leaning towards Early / Recovery.
| Risk Watch | The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions ahead. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The high percentile of Credit Impulse suggests potential for upward momentum in asset prices. |
D - Alternative & Prediction
| Pizza Index (late-night administrative activity) | Current | z-score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pizza Index (experimental) | 107 | +0.78σ | Folklore proxy for off-hours admin activity |
| Market | YES | Vol. | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 50% | $10,193,179 | 2026-10-31 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 50% | $33,690,074 | 2026-04-29 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 50% | $28,862,696 | 2026-04-29 |
RegimeOpenAI commentary
Current Macro Snapshot Analysis
- Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 107.
- Probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed Chair confirmation and interest rate changes.
- Mixed signals on future interest rate movements reflect market indecision.
- Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion regime.
| Risk Watch | The uncertainty surrounding Fed interest rate decisions could lead to increased market volatility. |
|---|---|
| Opportunity Watch | The moderate economic activity may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from stable growth. |