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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年8月22日 GMT+8 17:50

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

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模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.74%	+0.04	100%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.71%	+0.01	65%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+1.03%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.71%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
The 2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a stable short-term outlook.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting consistent short-term funding rates.

风险提示	High long-term yields may signal potential economic overheating.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0014	-0.56%	0.0011	0.0016	78%	扩张末段
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.6025	1.95%	0.5156	0.7712	45%	扩张中段
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.908	—	0.903	1.257	2%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Mid-cycle Expansion

The copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests a balanced risk appetite among investors.
The stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities over fixed income.

风险提示	Market conditions may shift rapidly, impacting asset correlations and investor sentiment.
机会关注	Monitor potential shifts in industrial demand that could influence commodity prices.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	-3.33%	3%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.81%	73%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.70 pp	58%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-07
沪深 300 现价	4,618.90	+0.57%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a potential contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

风险提示	Continued negative credit impulse may lead to further economic contraction.
机会关注	High equity risk premium may present attractive entry points for long-term investments.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	106	+0.67σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$13,642,516	2026-09-16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$7,721,094	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$9,872,380	2026-09-16

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 106.
Equal probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026.
Market sentiment reflects a balanced view on future monetary policy.
Current indicators do not strongly favor any specific business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions may lead to increased market volatility.
机会关注	The moderate economic activity could present opportunities for sectors sensitive to consumer spending.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年8月22日 GMT+8 17:50

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.74%	+0.04	100%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.71%	+0.01	65%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+1.03%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.71%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is at a high percentile, indicating strong long-term interest rates.
The 2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a stable short-term outlook.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive yield curve, typical of late-cycle conditions.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, reflecting consistent short-term funding rates.

风险提示	High long-term yields may signal potential economic overheating.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changing economic conditions.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0014	-0.56%	0.0011	0.0016	78%	扩张末段
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.6025	1.95%	0.5156	0.7712	45%	扩张中段
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.908	—	0.903	1.257	2%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Mid-cycle Expansion

The copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
The gold-to-S&P 500 ratio suggests a balanced risk appetite among investors.
The stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities over fixed income.

风险提示	Market conditions may shift rapidly, impacting asset correlations and investor sentiment.
机会关注	Monitor potential shifts in industrial demand that could influence commodity prices.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	-3.33%	3%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.81%	73%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.70 pp	58%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-07
沪深 300 现价	4,618.90	+0.57%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Contraction / Trough

Credit Impulse is negative, indicating a potential contraction in credit growth.
Equity Risk Premium is relatively high, suggesting increased risk aversion among investors.
M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, reflecting a slowdown in money supply growth.

风险提示	Continued negative credit impulse may lead to further economic contraction.
机会关注	High equity risk premium may present attractive entry points for long-term investments.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	106	+0.67σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$13,642,516	2026-09-16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$7,721,094	2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	50%	$9,872,380	2026-09-16

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 106.
Equal probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed interest rate changes post-September 2026.
Market sentiment reflects a balanced view on future monetary policy.
Current indicators do not strongly favor any specific business-cycle regime.

风险提示	The uncertainty in Fed interest rate decisions may lead to increased market volatility.
机会关注	The moderate economic activity could present opportunities for sectors sensitive to consumer spending.