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宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年6月23日 GMT+8 17:28

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.51%	+0.06	96%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.68%	+0.02	53%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.83%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.68%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is significantly high, indicating potential inflationary pressures.
2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a mixed outlook on short-term economic growth.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive slope, reflecting investor confidence in future growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term borrowing costs.

风险提示	High 10Y yield may signal increased borrowing costs and potential economic slowdown.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changes in market sentiment.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	-0.36%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5632	0.39%	0.5156	0.7712	28%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.966	—	0.948	1.251	7%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
Gold to S&P 500 ratio suggests lower confidence in equities compared to gold.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities over bonds.

风险提示	The low percentile of the stock-to-bond yield ratio may indicate potential market volatility.
机会关注	The high copper-to-gold ratio could signal growth opportunities in industrial sectors.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	6.56%	70%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.24%	2%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.10 pp	64%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-05
沪深 300 现价	5,059.66	+2.39%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Mid-cycle Expansion

The Credit Impulse indicates a positive momentum in credit growth.
The Equity Risk Premium is low, suggesting reduced investor compensation for equity risk.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, indicating potential liquidity constraints.

风险提示	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal investor complacency amidst potential market volatility.
机会关注	The positive Credit Impulse could present opportunities for sectors benefiting from increased credit availability.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	124	+2.67σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
下一次 FOMC 会议美联储是否按兵不动？	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
到 2026 年底，美联储累计降息是否达到 75bp 以上？	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
美国二季度实际 GDP 年化是否高于 +1.5%？	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 124.
Probabilities suggest a 68% chance the Fed will maintain rates at the next meeting.
There is a 31% probability of cumulative rate cuts exceeding 75bps by the end of 2026.
57% probability that Q2 GDP growth will exceed 1.5%.

风险提示	The low probability of significant rate cuts may indicate limited monetary easing in the near term.
机会关注	The moderate GDP growth outlook suggests potential for continued economic resilience.

Research Terminal

Preparing cached macro data. 正在载入宏观研究数据。

§ § §

宏观研究终端

跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。

实时 - 延迟

数据截至: 2026年6月23日 GMT+8 17:28

行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，市场工作台每 60 秒刷新一次。

§ § §

模块 A - 流动性与收益率

利率水平、期限利差与收益率曲线形态。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周分位	Notes
10 年期美债收益率	4.51%	+0.06	96%	^TNX (×10)
2 年期美债收益率	3.68%	+0.02	53%	^IRX (13-W proxy)
10 年 - 2 年期限利差	+0.83%	—	—	收益率曲线正常
SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率）	3.68%	—	—	短端替代

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

10Y yield is significantly high, indicating potential inflationary pressures.
2Y yield is moderate, suggesting a mixed outlook on short-term economic growth.
The 10Y-2Y spread indicates a positive slope, reflecting investor confidence in future growth.
SOFR aligns with the 2Y yield, indicating stable short-term borrowing costs.

风险提示	High 10Y yield may signal increased borrowing costs and potential economic slowdown.
机会关注	Monitor for shifts in the yield curve that could indicate changes in market sentiment.

模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘

用于指示经济周期位置的相对价值比率。
比率	当前	Δ	52 周低点	52 周高点	52 周分位	AI 信号
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F	0.0015	-0.36%	0.0011	0.0017	90%	过热 / 见顶
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC	0.5632	0.39%	0.5156	0.7712	28%	复苏期
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX	0.966	—	0.948	1.251	7%	周期低谷 / 早期复苏

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Late-cycle Expansion

Copper-to-gold ratio indicates strong industrial demand relative to safe-haven assets.
Gold to S&P 500 ratio suggests lower confidence in equities compared to gold.
Stock-to-bond yield ratio reflects a significant preference for equities over bonds.

风险提示	The low percentile of the stock-to-bond yield ratio may indicate potential market volatility.
机会关注	The high copper-to-gold ratio could signal growth opportunities in industrial sectors.

模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲

流动性投放与实体经济动能的对照。
比率	当前	52 周分位	Notes
信用脉冲（代理指标）	6.56%	70%	沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理
股权风险溢价（ERP）	+3.24%	2%	代理：E/P − 美债 10Y
M1 - M2 增速差	−3.10 pp	64%	东方财富/PBOC 月度，2026-05
沪深 300 现价	5,059.66	+2.39%	000300.SS

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Mid-cycle Expansion

The Credit Impulse indicates a positive momentum in credit growth.
The Equity Risk Premium is low, suggesting reduced investor compensation for equity risk.
The M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, indicating potential liquidity constraints.

风险提示	The low Equity Risk Premium may signal investor complacency amidst potential market volatility.
机会关注	The positive Credit Impulse could present opportunities for sectors benefiting from increased credit availability.

模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场

非主流活动代理与真实资金下注的预测市场赔率。
披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理）	当前	z-score	Notes
披萨指数（实验性）	124	+2.67σ	实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理

热门预测市场
Market	YES 赔率	成交	Close
下一次 FOMC 会议美联储是否按兵不动？	68%	$4,820,000	2026-05-01
到 2026 年底，美联储累计降息是否达到 75bp 以上？	31%	$2,140,000	2026-12-31
美国二季度实际 GDP 年化是否高于 +1.5%？	57%	$1,035,000	2026-07-30

周期定位OpenAI 评注

Macro Snapshot Analysis

Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 124.
Probabilities suggest a 68% chance the Fed will maintain rates at the next meeting.
There is a 31% probability of cumulative rate cuts exceeding 75bps by the end of 2026.
57% probability that Q2 GDP growth will exceed 1.5%.

风险提示	The low probability of significant rate cuts may indicate limited monetary easing in the near term.
机会关注	The moderate GDP growth outlook suggests potential for continued economic resilience.