— 私人研究室 —
市场研究终端
“凡有数字，皆付梓焉”
宏观研究终端
跨资产经济周期仪表盘：利率、比率、信用与另类数据。
实时 - 延迟
数据截至: 2026年4月24日 GMT+8 18:54行情由服务器端 yahoo-finance2 获取，每日 16:00（Asia/Shanghai）刷新一次。
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模块 A - 流动性与收益率
| 比率 | 当前 | Δ | 52 周分位 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 年期美债收益率 | 558.40% | +10.83 | 52% | ^TNX (×10) |
| 2 年期美债收益率 | 463.70% | +8.02 | 45% | ^IRX (13-W proxy) |
| 10 年 - 2 年期限利差 | +94.70% | — | — | 收益率曲线正常 |
| SOFR（隔夜担保融资利率） | 463.70% | — | — | 短端替代 |
周期定位OpenAI 评注
Mid-cycle Expansion
- 10Y Yield at 558.4% indicates moderate long-term borrowing costs.
- 2Y Yield at 463.7% suggests short-term rates are lower than long-term rates.
- 10Y-2Y Spread of 94.7% reflects a healthy yield curve.
- SOFR at 463.7% aligns with current short-term interest rate trends.
| 风险提示 | Potential volatility in yields could impact market stability. |
|---|---|
| 机会关注 | The favorable yield curve may present opportunities for strategic positioning. |
模块 B - 跨资产周期罗盘
| 比率 | 当前 | Δ | 52 周低点 | 52 周高点 | 52 周分位 | AI 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
铜金比 HG=F / GC=F | 1.4578 | -0.49% | 1.4454 | 1.4587 | 90% | 过热 / 见顶 |
黄金 / 标普 500 GC=F / ^GSPC | 0.6514 | -0.10% | 0.6466 | 0.6722 | 26% | 复苏期 |
股债收益率比 (1/PE_SPX) / ^TNX | 0.009 | — | 0.008 | 0.011 | 48% | 扩张中段 |
周期定位OpenAI 评注
Current Macro/Cross-Asset Snapshot Analysis
- The 铜金比 indicates strong demand for copper relative to gold, suggesting optimism in industrial activity.
- The 黄金 / 标普 500 ratio reflects a weaker performance of gold against equities, indicating potential risk appetite.
- The 股债收益率比 is near the median, suggesting a balanced view on equity versus debt returns.
| 风险提示 | Market conditions may shift rapidly, impacting asset correlations and investor sentiment. |
|---|---|
| 机会关注 | The strong 铜金比 may signal potential growth in sectors reliant on industrial metals. |
模块 C - 中国宏观脉冲
| 比率 | 当前 | 52 周分位 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 信用脉冲（代理指标） | 6.28% | 91% | 沪深 300 3个月涨跌幅代理 |
| 股权风险溢价（ERP） | −549.96% | 56% | 代理：E/P − 美债 10Y |
| M1 - M2 增速差 | −1.64 pp | — | 待接入央行金融统计 |
| 沪深 300 现价 | 877.10 | +0.20% | 000300.SS |
周期定位OpenAI 评注
China's Macro Snapshot Analysis
- Credit Impulse indicates strong liquidity support, suggesting potential for economic recovery.
- Equity Risk Premium is negative, reflecting investor caution and potential undervaluation in equities.
- M1-M2 Growth Gap is negative, indicating a contraction in money supply growth relative to broader measures.
- Overall, the readings suggest a business-cycle regime leaning towards Early / Recovery.
| 风险提示 | The negative M1-M2 Growth Gap may signal tightening liquidity conditions ahead. |
|---|---|
| 机会关注 | The high percentile of Credit Impulse suggests potential for upward momentum in asset prices. |
模块 D - 另类数据与预测市场
| 披萨指数（夜间行政活动代理） | 当前 | z-score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 披萨指数（实验性） | 107 | +0.78σ | 实验性：华府深夜外卖流量代理 |
| Market | YES 赔率 | 成交 | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 50% | $10,193,179 | 2026-10-31 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 50% | $33,690,074 | 2026-04-29 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 50% | $28,862,696 | 2026-04-29 |
周期定位OpenAI 评注
Current Macro Snapshot Analysis
- Pizza Index indicates moderate economic activity at 107.
- Probabilities suggest uncertainty regarding Fed Chair confirmation and interest rate changes.
- Mixed signals on future interest rate movements reflect market indecision.
- Overall, the readings suggest a Mid-cycle Expansion regime.
| 风险提示 | The uncertainty surrounding Fed interest rate decisions could lead to increased market volatility. |
|---|---|
| 机会关注 | The moderate economic activity may present opportunities for sectors benefiting from stable growth. |